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Description:
Is a 10% investment return really a great return—or are you taking far more risk than that number suggests?
High returns can look compelling on a spreadsheet, especially when an investment is secured by real estate or backed by someone you trust. But concentration risk, illiquidity, legal costs, leverage, and even personal relationships can dramatically change the real-world outcome. For Canadian business owners who already have significant wealth tied to one private business, understanding those hidden risks is especially important.
You’ll discover:
- Why return alone is a poor measure of an investment—and how to evaluate whether you’re actually being compensated for the risk you’re taking.
- Why “secured” doesn’t necessarily mean “safe”—including what can happen when a borrower defaults and recovering your capital becomes your problem.
- How diversification can improve your risk-adjusted return by reducing your dependence on one borrower, one business, one property, or one outcome.
Press play to learn how to look beyond the advertised return and make investment decisions based on the risks that could actually affect your wealth.
Next Steps:
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Canadian Wealth Secrets Show Notes Page:
Consider reaching out to Kyle if you’ve been…
- …taking a salary with a goal of stuffing RRSPs;
- …investing inside your corporation without a passive income tax minimization strategy;
- …letting a large sum of liquid assets sit in low interest earning savings accounts;
- …investing corporate dollars into GICs, dividend stocks/funds, or other investments attracting corporate passive income taxes at greater than 50%; or,
- …wondering whether your current corporate wealth management strategy is optimal for your specific situation.
For Canadian business owners investing in private lending Canada or private credit Canada opportunities, understanding risk-adjusted return is essential to making smarter long-term decisions. A secured private loan may appear attractive, but investment risk can still come from concentration, illiquidity, leverage, legal costs, and overexposure to a single borrower or business. Building a diversified investment portfolio through thoughtful investment diversification and portfolio risk management can help support a stronger Canadian wealth plan and broader financial freedom Canada goals. For entrepreneurs, this often means coordinating corporate wealth planning, tax-efficient investing, Canadian entrepreneur finance, personal vs corporate tax planning, corporation investment strategies, RRSP optimization, salary vs dividends Canada, capital gains strategy, passive income planning, and corporate structure optimization alongside real estate investing Canada and other private investments Canada opportunities. A well-designed strategy can also incorporate financial buckets, an investment bucket strategy, estate planning Canada, legacy planning Canada, business owner tax savings, Canadian tax strategies, and financial systems for entrepreneurs to help create greater financial diversification Canada. Whether the goal is an early retirement strategy, modest lifestyle wealth, financial independence Canada, or building long-term wealth Canada, the focus should remain on aligning investment returns with risk, liquidity, taxes, and a clear financial vision rather than simply chasing the highest advertised return.
Detailed Episode Summary
Luck, Volume, and Planning for Success
Jon and Kyle discussed the role of luck in business success and how to increase opportunities for success through volume. They believed that luck is not negated by volume but instead increases with each opportunity, much like rolling a dice repeatedly. They also stressed the importance of preparation, hard work, and planning in defining luck and achieving success. They encouraged individuals to take control of their wealth building journey by creating their own volume and investing time in clear planning. Lastly, Kyle mentioned the release of the fourth weekly episode of ‘Secret Sauce’ and asked for feedback on the initiative.
Transcript:
If I told you I had an investment that was paying me 10% per year, would you call that a good investment? Maybe. Probably depends on the details, right? And that’s exactly the point. Because when most investors hear 10% return, their brain immediately starts comparing that number to something else.
Maybe they’re comparing it to a savings account, maybe a GIC, maybe the stock market, maybe their current investment portfolio. And 10% sounds good, but the return alone actually tells us very little. The more important question is, how much risk am I taking to earn that 10%? That is what I want to unpack in this episode.
Because recently we were having a conversation with some Canadian business owners and they had made a private loan to someone they knew very well. It was a six-figure loan. It was secured against real estate. There was legal documentation. The borrower was someone they trusted deeply, and the loan was set up to pay 10%. On the surface, this looked pretty attractive. But once we started pulling the deal apart, there was a much more important conversation underneath it. And that conversation was about risk-adjusted return.
So today I want to talk about why a 10% investment might actually be less attractive than an investment earning less. Why something being secured does not necessarily make it safe. Why private investments can sometimes feel safer simply because you cannot see their volatility. And why diversification matters so much when you are lending money privately.
Let me give you the general version of the deal. I’m obviously going to leave out any identifying information. This was a couple building their own business, they had real estate, they had registered investments, they were managing some of their own investments, and they also had this private loan. The loan was in the six figures. The borrower was a close friend and not just somebody that they casually knew. This was someone they trusted a lot. Someone with experience in business and real estate. The money had been lent in connection with a newer business venture.
And importantly, the loan was secured against real estate owned by the borrower. So there was a lawyer involved. There were documents. There was collateral. There was a path, at least on paper, for getting the capital back if things went wrong. And the return was 10% per year.
Now, the conversation became even more interesting because the investors were considering whether they should potentially borrow more money themselves against their own primary residence to lend more into this specific opportunity with this specific borrower. And this is where the spreadsheet can make something look very compelling.
Let’s say I hypothetically can borrow money at around 5%. Prime is at 4.45% as of the recording of this video. And a lot of people are borrowing at around prime against their primary residence or slightly higher. And then they can lend that money at 10%. So you look at the spreadsheet and go, I can borrow at 5%. I earn 10%. That’s a 5% spread. So why wouldn’t I do that?
And mathematically, sure, the math works, but the investments do not live inside spreadsheets. They live in the real world. And the real world has a lot more variables.
One of the things I said in that conversation was that the 10% is kind of the carrot. There is a reason someone’s willing to pay you 10%. That does not mean it’s a bad deal. And it does not mean the borrower is untrustworthy. It simply means that you should never forget that the return exists because you are taking some form of risk. That is how capital markets work. If I put my own money into something with virtually no risk and earn 10% forever, then everybody would do it. Capital would flood into the opportunity until the return came down.
So when someone’s offering you 10, 12, 15% or more, the question should not just be, how much can I earn? The question should be, why am I being paid this much? What risk am I absorbing? What uncertainty exists here? What could go wrong? And how badly could it go wrong?
Now, one of the strongest parts of this particular deal was that it was secured against real estate. And this is absolutely better than an unsecured handshake loan. There is value in security, but I think investors sometimes hear the word secured and translate it in their mind into the word safe. Those are not the same thing.
Security means you have a claim. It means there may be collateral you can go after. It means a legal framework that may help you recover this capital exists. But it does not mean recovery is easy. It does not mean recovery is free. And it certainly does not mean that the recovery is fast. And it definitely does not guarantee you that every dollar will be returned to you.
So imagine for a moment that the borrower stops paying. Now what? You may need to involve a lawyer. You may need to enforce the security. You may need to deal with another lender who has a higher priority claim against that same asset. And you may have to sell the property. The property might actually be worth less than you thought originally. Maybe the market’s soft at the exact moment you need to sell. And that’s usually when borrowers go belly up, right? When the markets aren’t doing so well.
There may be commissions associated, legal fees, carrying costs, repairs, time, stress, and the list goes on. And suddenly your nice clean 10% return starts getting chipped away pretty quickly. So one of the phrases I want people to remember is: secured gives you a path to recovery. It does not guarantee an easy recovery.
And I’ve learned some of this personally, okay? So I’m not just telling you this and I didn’t just read it out of a book. A few years back I got involved with what was essentially private lending and a joint venture situation. It came through a friend of a friend, and the idea was pretty simple: there was a property. The other person was going to flip it and they needed some money so that they could actually do this work.
So I was going to come in with the money and bring the capital into the deal. And I was expecting a strong return. I believe the return was around 12% per year, which again sounds very attractive. And I thought, hey, why not give it a go? I know this person through friends, and they obviously seem like pretty trustworthy people.
Now, the one thing I did do right was to make sure the property itself was put in my name. And thank goodness I did. Normally in a private deal, you’re actually just lending the money and you’re agreeing that this money is going to come back to you. But in this case, I said, nope, I’m going to buy the property. I’m going to put the money down. And that way, if I needed to, I would get the property without any sort of legal involvement. They’d have to come after me if they disagreed with how things went.
And unfortunately, the person who was flipping eventually stopped showing up. The market was softening. This was coming out of COVID. Markets were at highs. We bought the property for what I thought was more than it was really worth at the time. But we continued through and eventually the contractor stopped showing up. And then this is when this investment suddenly became my property. I essentially took over the property.
Now again, it was already in my name. I didn’t have to get any legal involvement. I didn’t have to pay for lawyers or anything like that. But I did have to find other people to finish the work. That was a lot of work that I wasn’t expecting. I had to deal with the contractors. I had to deal with all the carrying costs. And then finally, once the property was finished, which was about 18 months later than we had intended, the market was so soft that we couldn’t sell it for a profit and we couldn’t even break even.
So as real estate investors, we kept it and we still own that property today. So this is about four years later. And it’s kind of funny when you think about it, because I never wanted the property in the first place. I never would have invested in this property myself. But I ended up owning it because the investment did not unfold the way the spreadsheet told me it was supposed to unfold.
And had the property not been in my name, I may have been chasing the borrower through the legal system. And as you’ll quickly find out, unless you’ve got a lot of capital into the deal, trying to get lawyers involved is probably not going to be worth your time and energy.
So when I look back at that deal and I say I was earning 12%, was I really earning 12%? And of course, I certainly didn’t earn 12% in the way I originally imagined. And hopefully that return will turn around with time. All ships will float over time as the water rises. But I’m still not in a position where I can actually sell that property and feel as though I’ve been made fully whole at this time.
So there was stress, legal exposure, carrying costs, execution risk, illiquidity, and the fact that I ended up owning an asset I did not actually want really taught me a whole lot about every single investment that I choose to make moving forward.
So this brings us to risk adjusted return. I want you to imagine a graph in front of you. On the horizontal axis, we have risk. Low risk is on the left. Higher risk is as we move to the right. And on the vertical axis, we have expected return. Lower return at the bottom and higher expected return at the top.
Now, generally speaking, if I’m going to take more risk, I should expect to be compensated with more return. Otherwise, why am I taking on that extra risk? So maybe at the lower left side of the graph, you might have things like cash and very high quality government bonds or even cash value insurance. It’s lower expected return, lower expected risk.
Then maybe further up and to the right, you start getting into diversified bonds. And then diversified private equities, maybe the S&P 500 or a global equity portfolio. More volatility, more uncertainty in the short term, but also a higher expected long-term return. Then you can start adding things like high yield credit, junk bonds, private credit, alternative assets, and so on. And somewhere even further to the right, you might have a single private loan to one borrower.
Because now your outcome depends on one person or one business doing exactly what they said they were going to do. That concentration matters. So if I have one investment that might earn 9 or 10% over time, but it’s diversified across hundreds of companies, and another investment that pays me 10%, but depends on one private company and one borrower, those are not equivalent. The expected return might look similar, but the risk is not. That is the entire point.
This is one of the biggest psychological traps here. The stock market feels risky because the price moves every single day. You can open your phone and watch your account go up or go down, and you can literally see your portfolio fall two, three, five, or more percent, even in a single day. And that feels extremely dangerous. Meanwhile, a private loan might just sit there, no ticker. No red number, no chart moving down, no daily mark-to-market price. So emotionally, the private investment can feel much more stable.
But here’s the problem: no visible volatility does not mean no risk. Sometimes the market is simply showing you the risk in real time. A private investment might be losing economic value and you would never know it. Imagine you lend money to a private company. Maybe that business was worth $5 million when you originally made the loan. Then the business starts to struggle. Customers leave, the costs go up, the economy changes. Maybe the business is now effectively worth $2.5 million.
Does your online account suddenly show a 50% decline? No, there is no public market. There is no constantly updated price. Your loan agreement still stays the same thing, so it feels stable. But economic reality has in fact changed. And that gives us another important distinction. Volatility and risk are not the same thing. Sometimes volatility is simply visible risk, and private investments can hide risk because there is no public price.
This is where my thinking has changed over time. There was a point where I would have instinctually said a private loan secured against real estate feels safer than the stock market. But then you zoom out. Take something like the S&P 500. You’re effectively getting exposure to approximately 500 of the largest companies in the United States, the biggest economy in the entire world at this time. You’re diversified across technology, financials, healthcare, industrials, consumer businesses, energy, communication, all sorts of different businesses.
Now, is the S&P 500 guaranteed? Of course it’s not. Can it fall 30 to 40% in a very short period of time? The answer is yes. We’ve seen that happen in our lifetime, and it will happen again. But your entire investment is not dependent on one entrepreneur or one investor executing one business plan. And that is an important distinction.
The visible price movement of the market can make it look scarier, but concentration risk can make a much more permanent kind of loss. So imagine the stock market drops 25%. It feels terrible, you see it, your account balance is down, all you’re seeing is red. But if you own a diversified portfolio and the underlying businesses continue to operate, earn profits, and grow over time, that temporary decline will eventually recover.
Now compare that to a private loan. Maybe nothing happens for three years. Everything looks stable. You’re collecting interest, or maybe you’re not. And maybe that interest is being added to the loan balance, like it was for this particular couple that I just met with. No volatility, no scary chart. But then the borrower eventually defaults or disappears like they did in my case. The collateral is not worth enough. Legal fees eat into the recovery and you permanently lose part of your principal. There may have been almost no visible volatility, but you still lost money.
So one of the questions I like to ask is: would I rather tolerate volatility I can see or accept a meaningful chance of permanent loss that I cannot see until it happens? This is a very different way of thinking about risk.
There was another interesting piece to the deal that we were reviewing. The investors were not necessarily receiving all of the interest as cash flow. Instead, the interest could be added to the amount owing. So let’s use a simple example. You lend $150,000 at 10% per year. One year later, maybe the loan balance now becomes $165,000 because they haven’t paid out the interest. And then $181, and then it becomes almost $200,000. And on paper, that feels really good because the number is growing.
But here’s the question: Did your liquidity grow? That is not something we can easily answer. What grew was your claim against the borrower, but those are very different things. A growing IOU is not the same thing as growing liquidity. If the borrower has the financial strength to pay it all back, that’s great. But if the borrower eventually runs into trouble, having a bigger number on the agreement does not automatically make you wealthier. You still need somebody on the other side who can pay.
And depending on how the investment is legally and tax structured, there may also be tax considerations where interest can potentially become taxable even if it has not been physically paid out to you. That is something you would absolutely want to review with your accountant or tax advisor based on the specific agreement.
So let’s take this one step further. What if you borrow money to make the private loan? This is where the spreadsheet starts to get really exciting. Maybe you borrow at 5%. You’re lending at 10% and you make the spread. That’s great. Except there was a big difference between those two obligations. The borrower owes you money, but you owe the bank money regardless of whether the borrower pays you or not. And that’s very important.
If the private business goes through a rough year and stops making payment, the bank does not care. The HELOC still has interest. The loan still has interest. You still have monthly or annual carrying costs that you need to deal with. So leverage introduces another layer of risk.
And for Canadian business owners, I think this is particularly important because many business owners already have variable cash flow. They already have risk inside their own operating business. They may already have debt on their home, debt on commercial real estate or business obligations. You’ve got payroll, equipment. Maybe you have kids and they’re one of the biggest liabilities in my life. I know that for sure. And maybe other commitments. So adding borrowed money to invest in another private business can compound an already concentrated financial picture.
Again, that does not automatically mean not to do it. It just means you have to look at the entire system.
This is something I think Canadian incorporated business owners need to hear. You already own a concentrated private asset, your business. Think about what your operating company is. It’s private, it’s concentrated, it’s probably illiquid, and it may depend heavily on you. It may depend heavily on a handful of employees, and it may depend heavily on a few clients. And for many entrepreneurs, it represents a massive portion of their eventual net worth.
That is essentially a concentrated private equity position. And that can be fantastic. Your business may ultimately create far more wealth than your investment portfolio ever has or ever will. But because you already have that concentrated exposure, you need to think carefully about how you build the rest of your balance sheet. Do you necessarily want another huge chunk of your investable capital tied to one other entrepreneur’s private company? Maybe you do. Maybe you don’t. But that decision should be intentional.
Now, none of this means private lending or private credit is bad. Actually, there are some very attractive characteristics. The income can be strong, returns can be compelling, there can be less correlation with public equities, and there can be real opportunities. But the question is: can we access those characteristics in a more diversified way?
And this is where funds of private credit can become interesting. For example, there are publicly traded business development companies, often called BDCs. There are closed-end funds, high-yield bonds funds, private credit funds, and alternative asset trusts that exist out there in managed portfolios. And instead of you lending $150,000 to one business, your capital might ultimately be spread out across dozens or hundreds of different borrowers. Different industries, different geographic areas, different business models, and different management teams. And ideally, you have professional underwriting happening behind the scenes to do all of the heavy lifting for you. That changes the risk equation drastically.
So I want you to picture two columns. On the left, we have one loan, which is one borrower or one business, one piece of collateral or one legal agreement, and really one outcome. If that one deal fails, you feel all of it. Now on the right, I want you to picture a diversified private credit strategy, maybe dozens or hundreds of loans. Multiple companies, multiple sectors, different repayment sources, professional underwriting, professional servicing, professional enforcement.
Now individual loans can absolutely still fail inside that portfolio, and in fact, some probably will. But one failure does not necessarily destroy the entire investment. That is the power of diversification. And this is where risk-adjusted return becomes so important. If two strategies can potentially generate similar returns, but one requires one borrower to succeed, while the other spreads the risk across a large pool of borrowers, I want to at least understand why I would choose the concentrated option. Is the return that much better or is the opportunity that much safer? And I think that’s a really difficult thing for you to determine unless your full-time job is actually evaluating and underwriting these types of deals.
There’s also something else individual investors sometimes underestimate. When you lend money to someone you know, part of your underwriting might sound like this: I trust them, they’re smart, they’ve been successful in the past, they own all kinds of real estate, they’ve done good deals before. And those observations matter.
But institutional underwriting goes much deeper. A professional credit team may look at cash flow, debt service, existing liabilities, collateral, loan to value, where their claim sits in the capital structure or stack, covenants, the business model, economic sensitivity, probability of default, potential recovery if there is a default, portfolio concentration, and dozens of other variables. And maybe most importantly, the professional underwriter has no friendship on the line. They can simply say, no, we don’t like this deal for this reason. And that’s it. That is harder to do when the borrower is someone you’ve known for years.
So now, while friendship can be an asset in many ways, it’s worth us discussing that actually adding friendship to the mix is actually an increased risk. You’re introducing relationship risk. So suppose your close friend stops paying. Now what? Do you call them every week? Do you send them a demand letter? Do you involve a lawyer? Do you force the sale of their property? What if they’re going through a difficult time? What if their family’s involved? What if you’re at Thanksgiving together and they’ve stopped making payments on this loan?
Now your investment decision and your personal relationship are intertwined. And that can make rational decision making way more difficult. And again, this is not a reason to never invest with friends. It’s just simply another form of risk that investors often do not put into the spreadsheet and they don’t think about enough.
So this conversation also ties into something we see with DIY investors. People can become extremely focused on avoiding investment management fees. And I understand why. If someone’s charging you 1%, 1.5%, whatever the number is, you should absolutely understand what you’re receiving in exchange for that fee. But I think there’s a strange thing that often happens. Investors become incredibly fee-sensitive and surprisingly risk insensitive. They’ll spend hours trying to save a fraction of a percentage point in fees, but then put a six-figure amount of money into one private deal without knowing anything about underwriting.
That is worth thinking about because a fee is visible, but concentration risk is harder to see. And oftentimes it’s completely invisible. Professional asset management can potentially add value through things like asset allocation, diversification, tax aware portfolio construction, professional underwriting, alternative asset access, rebalancing, behavioral discipline, and risk management.
And for a business owner, there is another cost that rarely appears on a statement. Your time. If you’re spending hours researching investments, as you should if you’re a DIY investor, monitoring the markets, worrying about individual stocks, trying to underwrite private loans, and constantly thinking about your portfolio, what is that taking you away from? Is it taking you away from your business, from your family, maybe from your health? There is value in simplicity.
This is where our philosophy at Canadian Wealth Secrets comes in. For the right investor, we like the idea of combining different sources of return. That may include significant exposure to public equities. That may include some fixed income. It may include alternative assets. And depending on the management strategy and investor suitability, it may also include institutional style private investments and private credit exposure. The goal is not to make someone’s life more complicated. It’s actually the exact opposite.
We sometimes say you can have a sophisticated financial system without having a complicated life. That is the goal, because a successful business owner does not necessarily want to spend Saturday morning underwriting private debt. They want their capital working intelligently in the background while they focus on the things they do best.
And this is usually where somebody says, okay, but what happens when the next stock market crashes? And it’s a fair question because I think we’ve been playing in what we call extra innings for quite some time. The problem is we don’t know when the next one is coming. We do know that there will be another major market decline, but we just don’t know when. And nobody does. And it could happen soon, and it could happen years from now. It could be caused by something that we’re all talking about today. Or it could be caused by something nobody’s even thinking about yet.
So good portfolio construction should assume that volatility will happen. The solution is not necessarily to avoid public markets completely. Instead, the solution is to build a portfolio that understands risk in advance. That might include broad diversification. It might include different asset classes, different return drivers. Maybe it has alternative assets and active risk management. And depending on the strategy, different forms of hedging, just like big hedge funds do and insurance companies and all the major pension funds do.
The objective is not to promise that your portfolio will never go down. That would be way too unrealistic. But the objective is to build a portfolio where one event does not necessarily derail the entire financial plan.
So let’s come back to the original deal. Was the 10% loan a bad investment? I cannot tell you based on the interest rate. And that is exactly the entire point of this episode. There were some positives. There was legal documentation. We had collateral, there’s trust. The borrower had a track record, and there appeared to be flexibility around repayment. Those are all real positives.
But there were also risks: one borrower, one business, one friendship, and limited liquidity, potential legal enforcement, and collateral uncertainty. Interest that may be accumulating rather than arriving as cash. And potentially using leverage to increase the size of the investment. So the better question is not: is 10% good? The better question is, is 10% enough compensation for all of those risks? That is how I want investors to think.
Now, if you’re considering private lending, private credit, a private mortgage, a private business deal, or even investing with someone you know personally, I would ask at least three questions.
One is: what exactly has to go right for me to get my expected return? So that means who has to execute, what business has to succeed, what property value has to hold, and what assumptions need to remain true.
The second question we’d be asking is: what exactly happens if it goes wrong? Not the legal theory, not the practical reality, but who’s calling the lawyer? What takes over the asset? Who finishes the property? Who sells the property? How long might it take? And what might it cost?
And then finally: could I potentially earn a similar return with less concentrated risk? That is a powerful question because if the answer is yes, and I’m telling you right now, the answer is yes, 10% is not unrealistic to earn in BDCs and in other alternative asset trusts like the one that we have managed through our team here at Canadian Wealth Secrets. You want to make sure that you are actually exploring the alternatives that you have in order to get similar returns with less risk.
So if there’s one idea I want you to take away from this episode, it’s this: do not evaluate an investment based on return alone. A 10% investment is not automatically better than a 5% or an 8% investment. A 12% private lending deal is not automatically better than a diversified public portfolio. And something being secured against real estate does not automatically make it safe. You need to understand the complete system: the return, the risk, the liquidity, concentration, tax implications, the legal implications, and how that investment fits into everything else you already own.
Because building wealth is not about squeezing the maximum return out of every individual dollar. It’s about building a resilient financial system that can compound over time without one bad decision putting the entire plan at risk.
So if you’re an incorporated Canadian business owner or a high-income professional, and you’re wondering whether your current investment portfolio is actually structured as efficiently as it could be, that is exactly the type of conversation we have through our financial freedom blueprint process. We can take a look at what you’re currently doing: your corporate investments, your personal investments, registered accounts, your real estate, any private deals, your debt, your cash flow, and the overall structure. The goal is to identify what is working well and where there may be risks, gaps, or opportunities for improvement.
And you do not need to already be looking for a new investment manager. Maybe you love being a DIY investor. Maybe you already work with a bank. Maybe you already have an advisor or an investment firm that you like and trust. That’s completely fine. Sometimes an independent second look can simply help you understand whether the return you’re pursuing makes sense relative to the risk you are currently taking.
So if you would like to start building out your financial freedom blueprint and have us review your current portfolio, you can book a complimentary strategy call with the Canadian Wealth Secrets team. And I’ll leave you with this question: are you evaluating your investments by the return they advertise or by the risk you’re actually taking to earn it? We will see you in the next episode.
Just a reminder this content was created for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, accounting, or other advice. Kyle Pearce is a life licensed and accident sickness insurance advisor, is a graduate of the Canadian Securities course, and is the president of corporate wealth management at Canadian Wealth Secrets. Canadian Wealth Secrets is an education-first company whose team members and partners are strategically licensed to assist with asset management, insurance products, and private equity opportunities.